Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer: Infrastructure Up, Confidence Strong

The latest Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer (ATB) paints an optimistic picture of the continent’s trade landscape in 2026. For the first time since its 2022 inception, the ATB shows simultaneous improvements across all major trade-enabling infrastructure categories, power, telecommunications, roads, rails, ports, and digital border systems, in ten key African markets that together represent 68% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP. The report, which draws on firm-level surveys across Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia, highlights a continent not only rebuilding its logistics and digital capabilities but also fostering stronger business confidence amid improving macroeconomic conditions.

This coordinated uplift in infrastructure investment is reshaping how African businesses engage in cross-border trade. Firms surveyed reported a rise in business confidence to an index level of 65, signaling expectations of stronger turnover and more predictable trading environments across these markets. Moderating inflation in seven of the ten economies, alongside improvements in external debt positions, supports a projected growth rate of 4.3% in 2026.

Commodity exporters, particularly in gold, platinum, and copper, have seen a boost in foreign exchange earnings, further stabilizing national accounts and enabling more robust trade financing options. At the heart of East Africa’s progress is the private sector’s growing role in driving integration. With over 330 million consumers and a regional GDP expanding at nearly 6%, the region’s improved trade corridors and digital connectivity are translating into operational gains for exporters and importers alike.

[paywall]

The ATB’s findings align with recent regional summits highlighting the launch of new development strategies focusing on trade infrastructure, customs digitization, and regulatory harmonization. These efforts are enabling smoother intra-regional commerce, attracting foreign investment, and building the foundation for scalable regional value chains. Globally, African firms are recalibrating their trade partner preferences in response to shifting geopolitical dynamics.

The impact of recent U.S. tariff policies has led to a decline in engagement with American markets, despite the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) being temporarily reinstated for 2026. Businesses surveyed cite increased sourcing from Asian countries, especially China, driven by competitive pricing, broader product selection, and supply chain dependability.

China’s zero-tariff policy on imports from 53 African countries, effective from May 2026, reinforces this trend. The policy is more than a trade gesture; it reflects a strategic partnership aimed at facilitating industrialization and growth through expanded market access and enhanced cooperation. This pivot towards Asia dovetails with innovations in digital trade facilitation across Africa.

Digital payments now underpin 78% of cross-border sales and 79% of purchases in the surveyed markets, supported by bank-led rails, mobile money integration, and widespread adoption of the Pan African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS). PAPSS, in particular, is revolutionizing cross-border payments by enabling faster settlements in local currencies, reducing dependence on hard currency intermediaries, and lowering transaction costs. The digital shift is not only improving the efficiency of trade finance but also widening access to credit, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which make up about 71% of the firms surveyed.

Yet, the report also highlights challenges that temper the optimism. Climate change remains a significant disruptor, with 38% of firms reporting shifts in demand linked to climate impacts and 32% experiencing productivity losses. These pressures underscore an urgent need for resilient infrastructure and adaptive production systems that can withstand environmental shocks.

As African economies deepen their trade integration and industrial capacity, balancing growth with sustainability will be critical to maintaining momentum in the face of climate volatility. The ATB’s comprehensive framework measures tradability through seven pillars: trade openness, access to finance, macroeconomic stability, infrastructure, governance and economic support, foreign trade dynamics, and trade financial behavior. Across these domains, the report finds encouraging progress.

Trade openness is expanding within Africa, with 59% of exporters selling into the continent despite currency and cost pressures. Access to finance has improved through rate cuts in key markets such as Kenya, Ghana, and South Africa, alongside digital credit tools that enhance SME participation. Governance indicators show increased government support via customs digitization and border modernization, though tax relief remains the top priority for firms seeking trade facilitation.

Infrastructure improvements are particularly noteworthy. Firms reported advancements in power grid stability, expanded 4G and 5G telecommunications coverage, highway upgrades, and the digitization of customs processes that reduce clearance times and improve predictability. This infrastructure renaissance is vital for sustaining the logistical backbone of cross-border trade and enabling the scaling of regional value chains, a key goal of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

Awareness and initial operationalization of AfCFTA benefits are gaining traction, with half of firms surveyed recognizing easier movement of goods, broader market access, and the potential for industrialization. Early shipments under AfCFTA demonstrate real-world trade integration, moving beyond policy discourse to tangible economic activity. As more countries harmonize customs and regulatory frameworks and deepen regional cooperation, Africa’s competitive edge in global trade is set to strengthen.

Looking ahead, uncertainties remain. Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, pose risks to energy prices and global supply chains, which could ripple through African trade costs. Yet, the combination of infrastructure upgrades, digital transformation, firmer macroeconomic fundamentals, and rising business confidence present a compelling narrative of a continent poised to accelerate its trade-led growth trajectory. Philip Myburgh, Head of Trade for Business and Commercial Banking at Standard Bank Group, encapsulates the ATB’s message: “As AfCFTA implementation deepens, and as more countries harmonize customs, regulatory frameworks, and logistics platforms, Africa’s ability to expand industrial capacity, scale regional value chains, and strengthen competitiveness is set to accelerate.” The 2026 ATB thus signals not just a milestone in African trade infrastructure but also a turning point in the continent’s journey toward economic integration and resilience on the global stage.

[/paywall]