South Africa in the eye of the Epic Fury storm

This picture obtained from Iran’s ISNA news agency shows the site of a strike on a girls’ school in Minab, in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province. The United States and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026. The war inIranis escalating, with Tehran responding to US–Israel attacks with missile and drone strikes across the region.

Operation Epic Fury and Israel’s Operation Roaring Lion began on 28 February 2026. More than 7 000 km to the south, Prof. Barend Prinsloo, Director of the Centre for Geopolitical Security and Strategy at the North-West University (NWU), warns that South Africa will soon feel the effects through energy prices, shipping patterns and political exposure.

War modelling suggests the current conflict tempo may be sustainable for only about another ten days. If correct, longer-term impacts on fuel markets could be limited, and South Africa might even benefit slightly if shipping reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope. Professor.

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Barend Prinsloo, Director of the Centre for Geopolitical Security and Strategy at the North-West University. He points to three scenarios that could determine how the conflict may unfold. Scenario 1: The ten-day conflict estimate (stalemate) “The ten-day estimate rests on uncertain inventory arithmetic: how many rocketsIranstill possesses versus how many missile interceptors Israel and the United States can continue to deploy.Iran’s Shahed drone stock could still be in the tens of thousands.

“The opening strike wave shows the scale of the US role. Reports cite more than 100 aircraft flying as a coordinated package, while US Central Command states that more than 1 000 targets were struck in the first 24 hours. Sustaining that pace may prove difficult, and missile interceptor stocks are slow to replace.

If large salvos continue, the US and Israel will face hard trade-offs unless allies add major defensive capacity. “Regionally and among BRICS+ countries,Iranappears increasingly isolated as it continues ‘retaliatory’ missile and drone strikes on multiple Gulf states. The United Arab Emirates illustrates how quickly alignments can fray: it took part in BRICS+ naval exercises off South Africa in January 2026, yet it was later attacked byIranduring the current escalation.

Similarly, recent moves suggest the US and Israel are less aligned with some usual partners, including the UK, Spain and France. “In this scenario,Iran, the US and Israel would see their offensive and defensive capabilities deteriorate, and without external support the conflict would fizzle into sporadic skirmishes. Regime change in this scenario is unlikely.” Scenario 2: Rejuvenating diplomacy through clerical succession (Iranianregime survives)

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