Unemployment rate eases but structural crisis deepens

South Africa’sunemployment ratehas fallen to its lowest level in more than five years, but the underlying labour market picture remains structurally fragile. Statistics South Africa’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey shows the official unemployment rate eased to 31.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025, down from 31.9% in the previous quarter. Employment increased by 44 000 to 17.1 million, while the number of jobless people declined by 172 000 to 7.8 million.

The decline brings the official rate to its lowest level since the Covid-19 shock pushed unemployment above 30%. Yet the scale of labour market exclusion remains extensive. The combined unemployment rate, which replaces the previous expanded definition and includes discouraged work-seekers and others available for work but not actively searching, edged down to 42.1%.

Discouraged work-seekers increased by 233 000 to 3.7 million, while the potential labour force rose to 4.6 million. The number of people outside the labour force increased to 17.1 million. The quarterly improvement was accompanied by the continued hardening of long-term unemployment.

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Between the fourth quarter of 2015 and the fourth quarter of 2025, the number of unemployed people rose from 5.2 million to 7.8 million. Over the same period, the share of the unemployed in long-term unemployment increased from 66.9% to 79.7%, signalling deepening entrenchment. Youth exclusion remains acute.

The unemployment rate among those aged 25 to 34 stood at 44.3% in the fourth quarter. Among those aged 15 to 24, approximately 3.5 million out of 10.3 million, or 34%, were not in employment, education or training. Sectoral data show uneven momentum.

Seven of the 10 industries tracked recorded employment gains. Community and social services added 46 000 jobs, construction 35 000 and finance 32 000. Many informal traders were removed from the streets of Johannesburg around the time of the G20 leaders’ summit in November, contributing to the contraction in informal employment, statistician-general Risenga Maluleke said.

He cautioned against interpreting the quarterly decline in the official rate as evidence of a turning point. While lower than earlier peaks in 2025, he said the data do not yet reflect a fundamental shift in labour market dynamics. Referring to images of young people queuing for limited opportunities, he noted that such scenes represent only a fraction of the broader cohort consistently captured in official statistics.

The data was released days after President Cyril Ramaphosa told Parliament that more than two million job opportunities had been created for young people through government initiatives. Former statistician-general Pali Lehohla has rejected that framing. Employment levels, he argues, must be assessed using the household-based quarterly labour force survey, which measures employment, unemployment and labour market dynamics at the individual level.

The firm-based quarterly employment survey measures jobs, not people. One person may hold more than one job.

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