GOVT’S P378B BUDGET “FANTASY”

Econsult economists have slammed the proposed P378 billion development budget under the draft National Development Plan 12, calling it unrealistic and unimplementable Government’s proposed P378 billion development budget under the draft National Development Plan 12 (NDP12) has been described as “a fantasy,” with economists warning that the figures are neither implementable nor financeable under current fiscal conditions. In its latest Economic Review for the fourth quarter of 2025, Econsult says the draft NDP12 Public Investment Plan (PIP), which spans five years from 2025/26 to 2029/30, exposes deep flaws in the government’s budgeting approach and unrealistic political expectations. “The proposed PIP of P378 billion over the five years from 2025/26 to 2029/30 is a fantasy,” Econsult states.

The economic consultancy firm adds, “This level of proposed spending is completely unrealistic, and could not possibly be implemented or financed.” Under the draft plan, government proposes a development budget of P54.24 billion for the 2026/27 financial year. However, Econsult argues that such a figure bears no relation to fiscal reality and risks undermining overall budget sustainability. “Realistically, a sustainable overall budget for the 2026/27 financial year cannot include development budget financing of more than around P17 billion, unless recurrent spending is drastically reduced through workforce cuts,” the review notes.

The consultancy firm expresses hope that the proposed figures will not appear in the final 2026/27 budget, which is scheduled to be presented on 9 February. Beyond the headline numbers, Econsult challenges the widely held political view that Botswana’s budget should allocate a larger share of spending to development projects. According to the review, this argument ignores basic budget arithmetic and long-term fiscal realities.

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“Over time, the proportion of the budget devoted to recurrent spending has to rise, and that for development spending to fall,” Econsult explains. “Every development project generates new, permanent recurrent spending commitments, such as road maintenance, teachers’ salaries, and operational costs.” The development budget itself is singled out as a major structural weakness in public finances. Econsult says past development spending has been “incredibly inefficient and wasteful,” with projects often poorly designed, badly implemented, and selected without proper economic justification.

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