East Africa leads continent, as Africa set for stronger growth in 2026 —Standard Bank report

Africa is set for another year of solid economic expansion in 2026, supported by resilient global trade, elevated commodity prices and strengthening local currencies, Standard Bank Group Chief Economist Goolam Ballim said on Tuesday. Delivering the bank’s Economy 2026 Outlook in South Africa, Ballim said sub-Saharan Africa continues to benefit from what he called a “quiet engine of growth” driven by steady global demand. “With global growth holding up, the continent will export into a receptive environment,” he said.

More influential than global growth, Ballim noted, is the commodity price cycle, which remains elevated and has boosted export revenues for resource-dependent economies. He said higher commodity earnings have in turn strengthened African currencies, reduced inflationary pressures and opened the door for easier monetary policy. “Many African countries are enjoying a virtuous cycle that began in the second half of 2025 and will remain a resonant theme in 2026,” Ballim said.

Standard Bank expects African GDP growth to exceed 4 percent this year, with a similar outcome forecast for 2027 – marking one of the longest periods of steady, above-trend expansion in recent years. East Africa will lead the continent, with several economies projected to grow above 6 percent over the next two years, supported by investment, diversification and strong consumer demand. West Africa is also recovering, Ballim said, as reforms and fiscal stabilisation take hold.

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“It is plausible that Nigeria and Ghana will both grow in excess of 4 percent, with Angola also improving,” he noted. Ballim cautioned, however, that the global landscape was shifting towards what he termed a “contestative order,” where traditional rules, multilateral institutions and long-standing cooperation frameworks were weakening. Nations are increasingly using economic tools for strategic leverage.

“Geopolitics is now at the core of market orientation,” he said. “It is no longer simply about economic data.” Despite geopolitical tensions, 2025 ended stronger than expected, Ballim added. Falling inflation, lower interest rates, firmer equity markets and improved business confidence helped support global momentum, alongside some government-led fiscal support.

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