Why isn’t offshore oil and gas South Africa’s next mining boom?

As Cape Town hosts the Mining Indaba this week, the scale of the gathering once again reminds us of mining’s enduring significance to South Africa. More than 10,000 delegates from global executives to investors and government leaders will converge to discuss the future of an industry that has anchored our economy for well over a century. According to Stats SA, in 2025, GDP from Mining in Q3 2025 increased to 208,444.74 ZAR million, up from Q2 2025 and provided direct employment to nearly half a million people.

These are not simply numbers; they reflect the extent to which mining remains deeply woven into South Africa’s economic and social fabric. But as we celebrate the sector’s contribution, we should also reflect on an uncomfortable truth: South Africa has not applied this same strategic focus, ambition, or urgency to offshore oil and gas despite the potential for equally transformative impact. While Namibia and Mozambique are rapidly emerging as major energy markets attracting exploration investment, creating jobs, and securing new revenue streams, South Africa has barely moved off the starting line.

We have not meaningfully mapped our offshore resource potential. We have not provided the certainty investors require. And we have not aligned national strategy with the energy needs of the next three decades.

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The result? We remain vulnerable to energy insecurity and dependent on costly imports, even as potential solutions lie beneath our own waters. South Africa has already felt the consequences of dwindling domestic feedstock.

Mossel Bay, once home to a thriving Gas-to-Liquids (GTL) sector, is now constrained by limited supply, with far-reaching impacts on jobs, manufacturing activity and economic vibrancy. A stable, domestic gas supply could reverse this decline. It could: In other words, offshore gas could provide the economic stimulus that mining once offered if we choose to pursue it.

If South Africa needs a modern case study in what is possible, Guyana offers a compelling example. Since first oil in 2019, the country has recorded the highest real GDP growth rates in the world, averaging around 47% per year since 2022. Offshore oil production has transformed public finances, infrastructure investment, employment and investor confidence seemingly overnight.

Guyana’s lesson is not that every discovery leads to a boom. It is that countries that act decisively, provide policy clarity and partner with credible operators can unlock extraordinary national benefits.

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