Sharp decrease in SA automotive exports in December due to uncertainty around US tariffs

South Africa’s trade surplus narrowed in December as a sharp decline in exports of vehicles and transport equipment weighed on overall exports. However, Jee-Avan der Linde, senior economist at Oxford Economics Africa, says the latest trade statistics show that from November, goods imports fell by 5.8% to R141.1 billion in December, while exports decreased by 12.5% to R164.3 billion. Consequently, South Africa recorded a preliminary trade surplus of R23.2 billion (compared with a revised surplus of R37.9 billion in November).

Van der Linde points out that exports were pulled lower compared with November by precious metals (-26%) and vehicles and transport equipment (-39%). On the import side, decreases were driven by chemicals and crude oil (-5.0%) and machinery and electronics (-17%). He says when it comes to trade partners, South Africa logged a R31.3 billion merchandise trade surplus with the African continent during December, while recording a R8.3 billion trade surplus with Europe.

At the same time, South Africa registered a trade shortfall of R28.1 billion with Asia and a R1.5 billion trade surplus with the US. Why is this important? Van der Linde says South Africa recorded a preliminary merchandise trade surplus of R201.6 billion in 2025, slightly higher than the R197.1 billion surplus in 2024.

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“In the year ahead, mineral price tailwinds should support export receipts, while lower oil prices should weigh on domestic goods imports. Exposure to US tariffs is concentrated in manufacturing, especially of vehicles. “Without progress on the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), conditions in 2026 are likely to resemble the second half of 2025, with manufacturing pressured by the loss of tariff-free US access and intensified competition from Chinese exports.

“Thedepartment of trade, industry and competition is reviewing a potential 50% tariff on car imports from China and India– a move that could be diplomatically sensitive, given that all three countries are Brics members.” Meanwhile, he says, the proposed additional 25% US tariff targeting countries that do business with Iran has not been implemented, and there have been no further updates since the announcement. “If enacted, it would likely mirror the reciprocal tariffs, with salient mineral exports to the US likely excluded. South Africa has limited trade with Iran, with the main commercial link in telecommunications.

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