Kasama By-Election: A Lesson the Opposition Must Finally Learn.By Francis Musonda ll.Sun Tzu teaches us that “strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory, and tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.”The Kasama by-election offered the opposition yet another painful illustration of this timeless truth. Immediately the by-election was announced, my young brother called to inform me that Citizens First, the Socialist Party, and the FDD had each fielded their own candidates. My instant reaction was one of concern.
In warfare—as in politics—dividing one’s forces in the face of a common opponent is not bravery; it is folly. What followed was a textbook case of vote-splitting. Personally, I found myself in a difficult position.
I could not openly rally behind a single candidate without a conflict of conscience. The Citizens First candidate, my young brother Aaron Zimba , is someone I have treasured and remained close to for a long time. Equally, Ba Peter Chikweti Yuda of the FDD is a person I hold in high regard, more so because my very own young brother was deeply involved in architecting and vigorously driving his campaign.
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Supporting one meant wounding the other, and that personal dilemma mirrored the broader strategic confusion within the opposition.From the outset, it was evident that this contest would fracture opposition strength. Both the Citizens First and FDD candidates hail from the Patriotic Front tradition. In Sun Tzu’s words, “When you engage the enemy with divided forces, you will be defeated in detail.” These candidates were competing for the same voter base, the same political numbers on the ground.
The damage was therefore not accidental—it was inevitable. What we continue to hear from opposition parties are eloquent calls for unity, well-sung and emotionally stirring, but rarely translated into action. “The general who wins the battle, makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought.” Sun Tzu.In Kasama, unity was invoked after the battle, not secured before it.
At the ballot, unity was preached, but abandoned. To you my guy, Musonda Musonda Angel , credit must be given where it is due. While the loss of this election is undeniably painful—more so amid allegations of irregularities, you must equally recognize where victory was secured on the other front.
The constituency you serve as Councillor for Busoko Ward stood firmly behind the candidate you supported. It was earned. In strategy, Sun Tzu says, “Treat your soldiers as your own beloved sons, and they will follow you into the deepest valley.” Your people stood with you, and through you, they stood with your candidate.
That grassroots support made a decisive difference. The reality remains simple and unforgiving: had the Socialist Party, Citizens First, and FDD agreed on a single opposition candidate, the outcome would likely have been very different. When opposition votes are combined, the margin between victory and defeat is strikingly minimal.
Moreover, many voters—unable to divide their loyalty between Citizens First and FDD—likely chose abstention. Sun Tzu warns that “opportunities multiply as they are seized,” but in Kasama, opportunity was diluted through indecision.For now do not assume that my relatives will one day start voting like other provinces. Do your homework.
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