The year 2024 was the warmest year on record – fuelled in part by El Niño – and 2025 was the third warmest globally. The pattern is becoming clear, and the next El Niño could well be devastating. And if it is followed by another, it will leave a massive trail of misery in its wake.
With close to 40 people dead in the wake of catastrophic flooding in Limpopo and Mpumalanga, the subject of drought is not high on the radar screens of the South African public outside of a handful of regions. The La Niña weather pattern, which typically drenches much of southern Africa, looks to have faded after a brief appearance and long-range weather forecasts are now calling for a return of El Niño in time for spring 2026. And that will probably herald drought in an age when El Niño has been intensifying in the wake of accelerating climate change – a worrying prospect that SA needs to prepare for now.
“If we are heading for an El Niño in 2026 it will likely be very, very hot,” Johan van den Berg, a meteorologist specialising in agricultural weather, told an agricultural briefing on Wednesday, 28 January 2026, hosted by Nedbank. Van den Berg said La Niña had now ended and that the global weather dance known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (Enso) was entering its neutral phase. Major forecasters were now calling for a 50% chance of El Niño returning by June/July, rising to about 60% by September/October, Van den Berg said in his presentation.
Read Full Article on Daily Maverick
[paywall]
The previous El Niño of 2023/24 was a scorcher of note, with production of Zimbabwe’s staple maize crop falling 60%, Zambia’s by half, and SA’s by more than 20%. According to Van den Berg, about 80% of the really poor seasons for SA’s maize crop over the past few decades coincided with El Niño events. But just as Enso can move from La Niña to neutral and then back to La Niña, it can also give rise to a double whammy El Niño.
[/paywall]
