With the gold price over $5 000 and the rand sitting under R16/$, South Africans are now wondering how they will benefit from this good news, as well as other positive factors, such as low inflation, when it comes to their salaries. PayInc, a payments provider, conducted an analysis of these factors for its PayInc Net Salary Index and says, supported by positive economic developments, record-high commodity prices, a stronger rand, and low inflation, real salary increases are expected this year. The PayInc Net Salary Index reflects the average nominal net salary of approximately 2.1 million salary earners in South Africa, earning between R5 000 and R100 000 per month on a net basis.
The Index ended 2025 on a positive note, withsalaries tracking higher than a year ago. “Although the average nominal salary flattened in December 2025 at R21 397, it was still 1.8% higher than a year ago,” Shergeran Naidoo, head of stakeholder engagements at PayInc, says. “The upward trend in net salaries during 2024 continued into 2025, with the average nominal salary increasing by 3.7%, compared to 4.6% in the year before.” Elize Kruger, an independent economist, points out that the sustained recovery in salaries reflects the gradual improvement in economic activity and the economy’s resilience, despite multiple challenges.
In real terms, the PayInc Net Salary Index decreased by 0.3% in December compared with November to R20 641, marking the sixth consecutive month of dipping below year-ago levels. This also reflected the gradual uptick in consumer inflation from 2.7% in March to3.6% in December. “Still, with average consumer inflation at only 3.2% in 2025, the average real net salary as measured by the PayInc Net Salary Index was still up by 0.5% compared to 2024,” she says.
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Kruger is optimistic that 2026 will deliver another year of real salary growth. “From record-high commodity prices and a rand trading below the R16/$ mark for the first time since 2019, to consumer inflation at its lowest average level in 21 years, there is good reason to expect a positive year for salaries. In addition, there remains scope for further interest rate cuts.” Carpe Diem Research forecasts real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.6% in 2026, up from an estimated 1.3% in 2025.
Consumer inflation is forecast to increase to 3.4% in 2026 from a 21-year low of 3.2% in 2025. Kruger says price-setting will likely be driven by moderate global oil prices, a stronger rand and easing inflation expectations.
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