Evacuation orders along parts of the De Kaap River remain in place after concerns that the Senteeko Dam may be on the brink of collapse have eased following a detailed engineering assessment, reports Cape {town} Etc. On Tuesday, 2o January, the City of Mbombela in Mpumalanga issued an emergency evacuation notice for residents living downstream of the dam, citing ongoing heavy rainfall and fears that the dam wall’s structural integrity was deteriorating. Residents along the Suidkaap, Kaap and Crocodile river systems were urged to move to higher ground as a precaution.
EVACUATION ALERT! Residents and businesses downstream of Senteeko Dam (Barberton-Kaapsehoop) must evacuate immediately due to imminent risk of dam wall failure, which could release 1.82 million cubic metres of water into the Suidkaap area.#MpumalangaFloods2026#NationalDisaster…pic.twitter.com/9NZyJBsv09 — GCIS_Mpumalanga (@GCISMpumalanga)January 20, 2026 However, a subsequent engineering assessment shared by Umjindi councillor Philip Minnaar later that afternoon indicated that a worst-case dam failure would not result in catastrophic flooding downstream. In the update, Minnaar said the dam had not collapsed, and that ‘when it does, it will take several hours to completely empty’.
He added that the Barbeton Valley and upper reaches of the De Kaap River would be most affected, with impacts diminishing further downstream. According to the engineering report, the De Kaap River was flowing at around 70 cubic metres per second overnight on 19 January, and had dropped to about 40 cubic metres per second by Tuesday. The Crocodile River, including inflows from the De Kaap River, was flowing past Kaapmuiden at roughly 300 cubic metres per second.
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The assessment also indicated that if the Senteeko Dam were to fail, it would add no more than 50 cubic metres per second to the Crocodile River near Matsulu, and only for a period of approximately eight hours. ‘This means it will look very much like it did on 19 January. The Crocodile River will be no higher than at any peak in the past two weeks,’ the report noted.
While the Crocodile River is therefore not expected to exceed recently recorded levels, Minnaar cautioned that the lower reaches of the De Kaap River, closer to its confluence, could still experience flood levels up to 30% higher than those seen on the evening of 19 January. For this reason, evacuation orders along the De Kaap River remain in place, particularly near tributaries and low-lying crossings. Residents have been warned to avoid low-water bridges and to stay clear of riverbanks should conditions change rapidly. ‘There appears to be no cause for alarm along the Crocodile River with regard to the Senteeko Dam,’ Minnaar said, urging the public to share information responsibly and avoid causing unnecessary panic.
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