While the political headline of this year is likely to be the outcome of the local elections, there are now signs of significant turmoil inside some of the regional structures of various parties. Recent decisions by structures in the ANC and Action SA suggest that the next few months could see much internal disruption in at least two of our parties. This may turn out to have a big impact on the final result of the local poll.
The past few days have seen the first signs of what is likely to be a very difficult political period, before campaigning for the local elections really begins. It appears that there are now real tensions between the leadership of the Joburg ANC and the city’s mayor, who supposedly represents them. News24has reported that mayor Dada Morerois refusing to work closely with the newly elected leader of the Joburg ANC, Loyiso Masuku.
ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula, meanwhile, hasasked the Gauteng ANCto provide the police with all material related to the ANC’s Joburg conference to investigate alleged irregularities. Masuku defeated Morero in an election in December. And despite promises by her supporters at the time to keep him in office, it is likely that calls for him to be removed will continue to grow.
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This is part of a pattern that the ANC has been unable to properly deal with over the years – the fact that there are often “two centres of power”. It is this dynamic that led to the removal of both presidents Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma. There is no reason to think Morero can withstand the contradiction this inevitably creates.
However, this is likely to be only the beginning of much greater turmoil. The DA is likely to try to make the entire story of this election about Joburg. The party will continually compare it with Cape Town (despite their very different histories, which continue to have an impact on how these cities develop now), claiming that service delivery there is because of the DA, and that service delivery in Joburg is because of the ANC. The DA may well find fertile ground in this, so angry are so many residents about the state of Joburg.
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