South Africa enters the new year with hints of a firmer footing, along with reminders of how fragile the recovery remains. Business Maverick chatted to a few of the minds at the very top – leading business CEOs – to find out their thoughts about the year ahead. Nedbank CEO Jason Quinn expressed the view that he is “cautiously optimistic about economic prospects for 2026, as well as improving banking sector profitability”.
This sentiment is backed by forecasts of improving GDP growth, which Quinn says will be “supported by structural reforms and strong collaboration, including public-private partnerships, particularly in the infrastructure space”. Nedbank expects GDP growth of 1.4% this year, rising slightly to an average of 1.5% in 2026. Looking ahead, Quinn notes that banking profitability should be supported by non-interest income and strong capital levels.
“Competition remains intense against the large established banks as digital-first banks, mutual banks and retailer-backed financial services also expand aggressively,” Quinn says. This will pressure traditional banks to innovate faster, enhance digital experiences and rethink pricing models. He expects the banking sector’s focus to shift “from resilience to reinvention, with accelerated digitisation, cost optimisation and efficient customer-centric models becoming critical for competitiveness”.
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Investec South Africa CEO Cumesh Moodliar noted that SA “ends 2025 on firmer ground than many expected”. He highlights that the economy has “delivered four consecutive quarters of growth for the first time in more than a decade”, buoyed by strengthened commodity prices, a steady rand and a 30% rise on the JSE. Monetary policy is expected to become more accommodative, supporting a gradual recovery in spending and investment, according to Quinn.
Nedbank expects two more rate cuts in 2026 as inflation moderates towards the new 3% target, currently standing at 3.6%. Similarly, Investec expects interest rates to be cut by roughly 50 basis points over the next year, offering welcome relief to households and businesses. Despite the improving sentiment, serious structural challenges remain.
Moodliar warns that positive tailwinds should not distract from the fact that “gross fixed capital formation remains subdued, private-sector investment and credit extension are still muted, and domestic consumption has yet to regain sustained momentum”. In the year ahead, Moodliar anticipates intensified competition, not only from neo-banks but also from mobile networks, large retailers and other non-traditional players entering financial services. “In this environment, data will be the key differentiator – the ability to use it responsibly to deliver more relevant, value-adding services will define advantage.”
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