Opposition infighting is undermining any real chance of a 2026 victory The most effective strategy President Hakainde Hichilema has pursued since assuming office has not been persuasion or policy, but disruption. From the outset, his focus has been to prevent the Patriotic Front from meaningfully participating in the 2026 General Election. That strategy has unfolded in stages.
First came the political neutralisation of former President Edgar Chagwa Lungu through a Constitutional Court ruling that removed his eligibility to contest. Then followed sustained pressure on the Patriotic Front through arrests, intimidation of supporters, inducements aimed at Members of Parliament, and deliberate efforts to weaken party structures on the ground. Parallel to this was the installation of a surrogate figure in the expelled Mafinga Member of Parliament, Robert Chabinga, widely viewed as an instrument designed to fracture the party from within.
These actions amounted to a direct assault on democratic competition. What is more troubling, however, is that sections of the opposition did not resist this project. Instead, they miscalculated.
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They assumed the weakening or collapse of the Patriotic Front would benefit them. Rather than defend democratic space, they moved to scavenge from a wounded ally. That misjudgment has proven costly.
Today, the opposition is so deeply infiltrated, divided, and consumed by internal ambition that it no longer requires external sabotage to unravel. It is dismantling itself. Nowhere is this clearer than in the current confusion surrounding the Tonse Alliance.
Public statements from Tonse suggest that the alliance has expelled the Patriotic Front led by Given Lubinda, while claiming to retain an association with an undefined “ECL grouping.” This position is not only incoherent, it is historically and legally indefensible. Fact matters. Zambia’s Sixth President, Dr.
Edgar Chagwa Lungu, left Given Lubinda as Acting President of the Patriotic Front and Chairperson of the Tonse Alliance. There is no alternative structure that carries that mandate. There is no separate grouping authorised to act in his name.
Any attempt to invoke President Lungu’s legacy while discarding the leadership he formally appointed amounts to using his name without authority. Against this background, the expulsion of Given Lubinda cannot be explained as reform or realignment. It fits the definition of an unconstitutional power grab.
For PF members within Tonse to participate in such a process would amount to betrayal of their own party, encouragement of internal revolt, and complicity in dismantling legitimate leadership. The spectacle is exhausting and deeply discouraging. At a time when Zambians are struggling under economic pressure, insecurity, and political exclusion, the opposition is absorbed in factional warfare.
Instead of confronting the central power of the state, it is turning inward, consuming its own energy and resources. The irony is painful. Zambians are desperate for change.
They are actively searching for leadership capable of organising, mobilising, and protecting their vote. Yet the opposition appears unable or unwilling to grasp the urgency of the moment. Winning in 2026 will require discipline, unity, and resources on a national scale.
It will require organisation across more than 12,000 polling stations, effective monitoring, legal preparedness, and the capacity to counter manipulation witnessed in recent by-elections. None of this is possible in an environment of endless internal conflict.
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