While many in our middle classes have reason to look forward with some optimism to a period of stability in the national coalition, this year may be marked by major changes involving parties on the left and our trade unions. And these changes might show the future direction of our politics over the longer term. For investors and business people the major focus of the moment is the progress the national coalition appears to be making in important reforms in the government.
The fact that the rand is stronger against the (weaker) dollar, that inflation is low and fuel prices are coming down significantly may make many people feel slightly more confident. As always the major threat to this comes from our politics. And for the moment President Cyril Ramaphosa appears to be stronger in the ANC than he has been for some time.
He emerged from the party’s National General Council last month in an enhanced position, and none of his rivals or potential successors appeared to put their heads above the parapet. But in the meantime there are other structural shifts under way in our politics that can sometimes appear almost obscured. In the final weeks of 2025, Natasha Marrianreportedthat the country’s biggest trade union, Numsa, had written to Cosatu proposing talks between them.
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Given how difficult theexpulsion of Numsa wasa decade ago, and how emotional it was for those involved, this is an important moment. But it is also a sign that Numsa can see how the ANC, and the alliance and what used to be called the Congress Movement, is splitting apart. The critical issue on which Numsa was expelled was its refusal to continue to publicly support the ANC (in the end Numsa started its own party, the Socialist Revolutionary Workers’ Party – which was amassive failure).
On Tuesday, while speaking at thecommemorationof the death of former SACP leader Joe Slovo, Cosatu president Zingiswa Losi confirmed that: “We welcome the invitation by Numsa to have a meeting to wage a way forward of how we’re going to unite the workers in our country.” Presumably supporting the ANC will not be a condition this time around. Especially considering that several of Cosatu’s biggest affiliates also no longer want to support the ANC.
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