Trump’s aggressive move to seize control of Venezuela signals a dramatic shift in global power dynamics, reviving a raw form of imperialism. As the US redefines sovereignty and intervention, the implications for oil markets and geopolitical stability are profound. The gloves are off.
The seizure of Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro removes any remaining illusion that the post-Cold War order is merely under strain. It is over. In its place is something older and cruder, in which power matters more than rules and the great powers do as they please.
We are back to a mid-19th century world of imperialism, where might makes right and weaker states exist at the behest of the strong. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine signalled that Vladimir Putin no longer felt bound by international norms, if indeed he ever did. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has shown that America does not either.
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Venezuela is the clearest evidence yet. The operation to remove Maduro was seamless, but its implications are far less straightforward. Within hours US President Donald Trump announced that the United States would “run” Venezuela until a “safe” transition could be arranged.
That is regime change, openly declared and unapologetically embraced. This settles a long-running debate about Trump. The belief that he is all bark and no bite, that “Trump always Chickens Out” (Taco), has not survived the opening weeks of 2026.
Trump is not merely a reckless talker. His threats are being acted upon. The market is weighing the short-term consequences of disruption on exports with the longer-term increase in production if – as signalled – US oil majors are given carte blanche to invest and pump Venezuelan crude.
That potential should not be overstated. Venezuelan crude is sour, extra heavy, high asphaltene, and high sulphur – meaning that not only are the costs of refining it much higher, but there are also a limited number of refineries in the world that can process it. Most of them are, unsurprisingly, located in the US. Even so, over time Venezuela could still weaken Opec’s grip on the market and further squeeze Russia’s war economy, which is almost entirely dependent on oil and gas exports already squeezed by sanctions.
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