Israel has been widely criticised for recognising Somaliland’s statehood, but others may follow suit. Israel’s controversial recognition of the statehood of the breakaway country of Somaliland has rocked the region, raising hopes – or fears – that other states might follow suit. Somalia, which considers Somaliland as part of its territory, the African Union and many individual states, including South Africa, have strongly protested against Israel’s move.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Somaliland’s President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdallah signed anagreementon 26 December 2025, in which Israel recognised Somaliland “as an independent and sovereign state”. Somaliland has enjoyed de facto independent statehood for 34 years, since unilaterally seceding from Somalia in 1991 after the ouster of the Somali dictator Siad Barre, and the collapse of Somalia into complete chaos. Somaliland has functioned as a relatively stable and democratic state since then, even as Somalia has remained chronically unstable.
Although many Western states in particular sympathised with Somaliland’s quest for official statehood and it lobbied hard for recognition, no state had recognised it until last week. Landlocked Ethiopia came close to doing so in 2024, seeking in exchange a route through the country to the sea. But after vehement protests from Mogadishu and diplomatic interventions, it backed down from formal recognition, though retaining an agreement to use Somaliland’s ports.
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Somalia has of course condemned Israel for violating its sovereignty by recognising Somaliland, as have several other states, especially Arab ones. Chrispin Phiri, the spokesperson of SA’s Department of International Relations and Cooperation (Dirco),said: “The recognition constitutes a violation of the Federal Republic of Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and a direct threat to peace in the Horn of Africa.” He added: “Israel’s action validates fragmentation and risks a domino effect of instability.” Implicit in this statement is the fear – among Somalia’s supporters – or hope – among Somaliland’s supporters – that Israel’s recognition has broken the ice, heralding a flood of recognitions by other countries that would make Somaliland’s journey from de facto to de jure statehood irreversible. Some analysts believe the United Arab Emirates (UAE) could be the next country to recognise Somaliland.
It already has an investment in Somaliland’s Berbera port and a military base near Berbera airport – and bad relations with Somalia, as well as many strategic and commercial interests in the region that would be advanced by closer relations with Hargeisa. But in a snap emergencysessionon Israel’s move in the UN Security Council on 29 December, almost all countries condemned or at least opposed the move. Somalia’s representative Khaled Khiari called it a “deliberate attack” on its sovereignty and added that Somalia “would not permit the establishment of any foreign military bases or arrangement that would draw the country into proxy conflicts”.
This was an apparent reference to concerns raised by some that Israel intends to use Somaliland’s highly strategic position, close to the Bab el-Mandab Strait linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, as a springboard from which to strike its Iran-supported Houthi enemies in Yemen. Somaliland has denied that it is part of the deal and also denied Somali accusations that the deal includes Somaliland accepting refugees from Gaza.
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