South Africa is actively cultivating multiple trade relationships to reduce vulnerability to geopolitical shocks and build diversified alliances. For global investors this diversification is a positive signal that the country is expanding its options and creating new corridors of growth. SA’s trade relationship with the US has entered turbulent waters.
The recentlyintroduced Agoa Extension and Bilateral Engagement Acthas reignited fears that the country could be excluded from the benefits of Agoa. For South African exporters this means higher costs of doing business with the US, diminished competitiveness and an uncertainty that affects long-term planning. Adding to the challenges is Maersk’s recent decision to exit the direct SA–US shipping route.
This will result in longer transit times between the US and South Africa, higher logistics costs to reroute goods destined via Europe, and possible price gouging due to reduced competitiveness. This logistical uncertainty undermines investment in numerous sectors in SA that have relied on trade with the US. Potential for growth in trade with China and the Middle East While SA already has strong trade relationships with China and the Middle East, they are often described as undersold, as they are heavily weighted on raw material exports rather than diversified, value-added trade.
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Recent statistics and trade policy moves show both the scale of existing trade and the advantages of expanding it further. According to Trading Economics, in 2024 SA exported $12.41bn worth of goods to China, mainly ores, slag and ash ($8.23bn), iron and steel ($1.39bn), and copper ($849m). Import figures from the South African Revenue Service in 2025 show that China accounted for 11.6% of SA’s exports and 22.8% of imports, making it the single largest source of imports for SA.
Earlier this year the South African Citrus Growers’ Association estimated that expanding exports to China and other markets could create 100,000 new jobs by 2032. At the 2025 G20 Summit in Johannesburg, SA and China pledged to expand co-operation in manufacturing, renewable energy and vehicle production, with China offering zero-tariff treatment for African exports. SA also runs a trade deficit with the Middle East, importing more than it exports from the region and further highlighting the untapped potential for stronger trade ties with this region.
Currently, the country’s exports to the Middle East remain limited compared to Asia and Europe, but sectors like agriculture (especially citrus and wine) and manufacturing are being positioned for expansion. According to customs statistics from the SA Revenue Service, Saudi Arabia, for example, accounted for 3.4% of SA’s imports, mainly oil and petrochemicals, in 2025. There is scope for this relationship to grow — Saudi Arabia noted in its Vision 2030 Reportthat it will focus onmanufacturing, mining and logistics as priority sectors for outward investment.
SA is a potential strategic entry point for an industrial base in Africa — both countries are also investing in port modernisation and dry ports. Saudi Arabia is also a major importer of agricultural products, which could be supplied by South Africa in future years. There is also significant potential to increase trade between South Africa and the United Arab Emirates.
According to the UAE ministry of economy, South Africa is now the UAE’s second‑largest non‑oil trade partner in Africa, with non‑oil trade between the countries reaching $8.5bn in 2024. Sectors where there is potential for growth include agriculture, logistics and infrastructure, renewable energy and manufacturing. Strengthened China and Middle East trade dovetails with the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) for the country because it positions SA as a continental gateway for investment and logistics.
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