US President Donald Trump’s Venezuelan expedition is starting to look like a rerun of Germany’s 1942 Operation Edelweiss to secure the Azerbaijan oilfields around Baku. Had it been successful — the Wehrmacht came within about 300km of its objective — it would have cut Russia off from 80% of its supplies while securing much-needed cheap oil for the German war effort. Venezuela has more proven reserves than Saudi Arabia, and the Texan/Louisiana refineries were designed for its heavy crude.
Currently, Venezuelan production is sold to China. Suggesting that the US task force is there to stop narcotic shipments is simply Trumpian propaganda. Venezuelan oil is needed to “collateralise” American government debt, with about $8-trillion requiring rollover in the short term without even considering any new requirements.
Commentators always mention two solutions for the US debt problem: inflation or default. A third option is taking critical resources by force, which the Germans called “lebensraum”. Hitler’s Germany had a debt problem even after reparations were abandoned in 1934.
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Hjalmar Schacht, Germany’s economics minister, after tariffing trading partners in surplus a la this year’s “Liberation Day”, thought up instruments like Mefo bills, allowing growing German debt to remain concealed until the late 1930s, when its sheer size necessitated the use of option three. Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela is correct to be worried about Trump’s intentions. Hitler had Austrian chancellor Engelbert Dollfus assassinated during the failed 1934 putsch.
Trump is extending similar treatment to President Cyril Ramaphosa. Should the US be following the German playbook, one could expect it to want South Africa’s critical minerals without having to pay too much for them. JOIN THE DISCUSSION: Send us an email with your comments toletters@businessday.co.za.
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