Retail property is enjoying a welcome expansion, with trading density growth outpacing inflation and signaling a sustained recovery in consumer-facing assets, as growth across key provinces underscores improving conditions. According to the third-quarter edition of the 2025Clur Index, the Western Cape led the three major provinces, recording year-on-year annualised trading density growth of 6.2% — 2.8 percentage points above September’s Consumer Price Index. Gauteng recorded the second-highest year-on-year trading density growth at 5.7%, while KwaZulu-Natal recorded positive growth of 3.8% — an expansion of 3.1 percentage points and the quickest acceleration since December 2024.
The index noted that all shopping centres recorded annualised year-on-year trading density growth of 5.5%, outpacing September’s Consumer Price Index by 2.1%. “The tracked universe is now characterised by broadly positive indicators, with trading densities and rentals rising year on year across all shopping centre formats and the three major provinces,” said Belinda Clur, founder and MD of Clur International. The biggest year-on-year growth was recorded by community and smaller centres at 6.6%, followed by regional centres (6.1%).
Regional centres also reported the biggest expansion in growth compared to December 2024, at 3.5%, followed by community and smaller centres with 2.8%. Vukile, which owns shopping centres in rural areas and townships near commuting areas, echoed that optimism in its results for the six months to end-September, pointing to stronger trading conditions across its portfolio. The company said the improved environment has provided some relief to pressured consumers, translating into improved tenant performance.
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Key tenants are showing renewed appetite for expansion, particularly in well-located dominant centres, as confidence in consumer demand continues to rebuild, Vukile. According to Clur Index data, the market was further supported by a continued trend of controlled market risk as evidenced by an ongoing stable and low rent-to-sales ratio. Against this backdrop, retail performance is being shaped by a sharply divergent metro picture that continues to influence investor confidence.
Cape Town remains the strongest commercial property market, with demand far exceeding supply across the office, industrial and retail sectors. eThekwini and Nelson Mandela Bay also show demand exceeding supply across all sectors, according to the FNB third-quarter property broker survey. Gauteng offers an uneven outlook, though.
Tshwane displays strength in industrial and retail property but remains oversupplied in offices. Greater Johannesburg is the weakest metro, with significant oversupply across office, industrial and retail assets — reflecting subdued demand and reduced investor confidence in the country’s economic hub.
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