Fresh polling reveals a wide-open ANC succession battle — with surprise surges, shaky favourites and two women entering the field for the first time. While President Cyril Ramaphosa projected confidence at this week’s ANC National General Council (NGC) and consolidated support, the meeting is the beginning of the end of his tenure in office. This is because the ANC holds an elective conference in 2027, so he is winding down his term as party president.
To prevent two centres of power, in both party and state, or for other reasons, ANC presidents have not completed two terms. Nelson Mandela, famously, chose to quit after one. So, talk turns to who comes after Ramaphosa: pollsters have taken the national pulse on the likely candidates named so far — two women have come into play, one name is too late for the first polls.
Soccer boss and business baron Patrice Motsepe has said he will not stand, but was included in the polls after suggestions that he could be persuaded. The billionaire, who leads CAF (Confederation of African Football) and owns Mamelodi Sundowns, as well as a successful suite of businesses from mining to banking, is the outlier candidate, scoring five percentage points more than the deputy president, Paul Mashatile. Motsepe leads in a poll of general voters by the Social Research Foundation (SRF).
Read Full Article on Daily Maverick
[paywall]
Among ANC voters, Mbalula got 15 percentage points more than Mashatile in the SRF poll. Mbalula is also regarded a smidgeon more positively than Mashatile in an Ipsos poll from July/August, with Motsepe far more highly regarded than either Mashatile or Mbalula. The Ipsos poll retained Cyril Ramaphosa to test positive regard, and he scored high among those who gave eight, nine or 10 points out of 10 to the named leaders.
The ANC primary race has opened up, with Mashatile in, Mbalula in, and the electricity minister, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, reportedly putting his hand up too. Because the ANC Women’s League wants a woman president, two veterans, the ANC deputy secretary-general, Nomvula Mokonyane, and the Speaker of Parliament, Thoko Didiza, are now being publicly mooted.
[/paywall]
