The ANC’s national general council (NGC) meeting could come to represent an inflection point; the moment it put a brake on the steady erosion of electoral support and clawed its way back into the hearts and minds of the South African electorate. Regaining organisational discipline is a core concern. From the opening session its leadership insisted they were not there to discuss the removal of ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa, with secretary-general Fikile Mbalula saying branches can discuss that in the lead-up to the 2027 elective conference.
Mbalula’s 294-page midterm report acknowledges that the ANC’s decline dates back to 2016, beginning with the loss of major metros and culminating in losing its parliamentary majority in the 2024 elections. The report describes the organisation as “weakened structurally, politically and morally, but not defeated”. In his opening address, Ramaphosa revived the Vision 2032 and renewal programme presented at the ANC’s 2022 national conference.
That conference’s declaration pointed out that “the ANC will only succeed in realising its strategic objective of transforming South Africa when it has successfully transformed itself into a renewed, responsive, modernised, well-governed, well-resourced, caring and effective political formation — the central focus of the ANC Roadmap to 2032”. There has been much speculation around ideological tensions over the ANC’s choice of political parties when constituting the government of national unity (GNU). Ramaphosa defended it, arguing that the national executive committee agreed that the core progressive policy agenda has been retained, despite the difficult conditions.
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Ramaphosa’s speech on the second night shepherded the troops around a common ideological framework by adroitly drawing on its many historical documents, with the 1955 Freedom Charter providing the fulcrum around which past thinking flowed and future thinking would revolve. In emphasising that the charter still represents a basis for radical transformation of the economy and building a nonracial South Africa that belongs to all who live in it, he: The circumstances leading to the local government elections and 2029 general election could not be more propitious for the ANC. We are witnessing the rolling back of crime and corruption through arrests, commissions and hearings, but the ANC needs to take the lead in this fight and not be on the back foot when its comrades are accused of, or implicated in, malfeasance.
We are also beginning to see an improvement in the country’s economic prospects, especially due to the raft of reforms made possible by the business-government working groups. Other factors that could create the conditions for the ANC’s revival are the fissures confronting the DA, EFF and MK. The May 2024 elections indicated that support for the DA and EFF is plateauing.
Fuelling this trend, according to election analyst Wayne Sussman the Patriotic Alliance (PA) is “setting themselves up as the one party stronger today compared to 2024”. An issue that should concern all parties is the decline in voter participation, with increasing levels of cynicism in the democratic process. Participation of the voter-eligible population, which includes registered and non-registered voters, came in at about 42% in last year’s elections.
The ANC must lead the charge in renewing faith in the electoral system and saving our democracy. • Abba Omar is director of operations at the Mapungubwe Institute.
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