Thungela Resources expects to deliver higher-than-guided export coal production for 2025, supported by improved rail performance and a steady ramp-up at new operations, even as lower prices and a stronger rand weigh on earnings. In a pre-close update for the year to end-December released on Tuesday, the coal miner said it now anticipates 13.7-million tonnes (Mt) of export saleable production from its South African mines, above the guided range and slightly higher than the previous year’s 13.6Mt. The improvement comes as Transnet Freight Rail’s volumes increased to an annualised 56.6Mt by the end of November, up 9% year on year.
At Thungela’s Ensham operation in Australia, production is expected to be within guidance at about 3.8Mt. Earlier challenges linked to difficult geology and lower-quality stockpiles have eased, with exports returning to normal levels. Coal prices remained under pressure through the year, with key benchmarks at Richards Bay and Newcastle trading below last year’s levels.
The company said weaker Asian demand, cheaper global gas, and increased nuclear and gas generation contributed to lower coal prices. The company expects group export equity sales to reach about 17.5Mt, up from 16.7Mt in 2024. South African free-on-board costs — the expenses of mining, processing, transporting and loading coal onto vessels at port — are expected to come in below guidance, supported by disciplined cost management and improved rail performance.
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Thungela also flagged potential impairments, noting that current assumptions on long-term coal prices and exchange rates “do not support” the carrying value of parts of its property, plant and equipment, which will be assessed when full-year results are released in March. The miner is continuing to adjust its South African portfolio as several operations reach the end of their economic life. It recently announced the sale of Goedehoop North and finalised an agreement covering the Kleinkopje mining right at Khwezela, with related rehabilitation liabilities transferring to buyers.
Capital expenditure for the year is expected to include R1.4bn in sustaining costs and R1.2bn in expansionary investment. Thungela expects to end the year with net cash of about R5bn, supported in part by gains from foreign exchange derivatives. The company said it plans to return a total of R2.1bn to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks.
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